Findings from continuous watching

The hardest reservations in America, measured

"Impossible to book" is usually a vibe. We made it a number. Our scouts have been checking 55 of the most contested reservation targets in the country every 15 minutes — around the clock, for up to 15 days, ≈56,706 checks — recording every time a reserved date flipped open and how long it survived. This page recomputes from the live log on every visit, so it sharpens as the data grows.

Campsites

The shutouts: never open, not once

Every campground below has been fully booked on every single check since we started watching it. No cancellation we could catch, no momentary opening wider than our 15-minute net. This is the measured shape of "you can't get this site."

CampgroundWatchedChecksOpenings seen
Dorst Creek Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks15 days≈1,4460
Campsites

Caught openings — and how fast they died

These campgrounds do open. The catch: the median opening is gone by our very next look. Lifetimes are bounds between our own observations — an opening "gone within ≤15 min" may have lasted seconds.

CampgroundOpeningsRateTypical lifetime
North Pines Yosemite National Park28 since Jul 2565/wkgone within ≤16 min (median)
Upper Pines Yosemite National Park27 since Jul 27168/wkgone within ≤16 min (median)
Slough Creek Yellowstone National Park26 since Jul 2126/wkgone within ≤16 min (median)
Tuolumne Meadows Yosemite National Park20 since Jul 2543/wkgone within ≤16 min (median)
Cougar Rock Mount Rainier National Park18 since Jul 27110/wkgone within ≤18 min (median)
Lower Pines Yosemite National Park23 since Jul 2550/wkgone within ≤21 min (median)
Many Glacier Glacier National Park25 since Jul 27139/wkgone within ≤31 min (median)
Lodgepole Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks24 since Jul 27102/wkgone within ≤31 min (median)
Assateague Oceanside Assateague Island National Seashore3 since Jul 2718/wkgone within ≤32 min (median)
Apgar Glacier National Park26 since Jul 2797/wkgone within ≤34 min (median)
Camp 4 Yosemite National Park25 since Jul 27127/wkgone within ≤44 min (median)
Jenny Lake Grand Teton National Park3 since Jul 2718/wkgone within ≤44 min (median)
Blackwoods Acadia National Park24 since Jul 2668/wkgone within ≤45 min (median)
Crane Flat Yosemite National Park19 since Jul 2536/wkgone within ≤45 min (median)
Mammoth Yellowstone National Park28 since Jul 2551/wkgone within ≤46 min (median)
Schoodic Woods Acadia National Park23 since Jul 2438/wkgone within ≤46 min (median)
Hoh Rainforest Olympic National Park16 since Jul 2798/wkgone within ≤46 min (median)
Signal Mountain Grand Teton National Park6 since Jul 2737/wkgone within ≤46 min (median)
St. Mary Glacier National Park29 since Jul 27152/wkgone within ≤60 min (median)
Fish Creek Glacier National Park25 since Jul 2674/wkgone within ≤60 min (median)
Sol Duc Olympic National Park21 since Jul 2544/wkgone within ≤60 min (median)
Kalaloch Olympic National Park22 since Jul 2784/wkgone within ≤61 min (median)
Hodgdon Meadow Yosemite National Park19 since Jul 2323/wkgone within ≤61 min (median)
Moraine Park Rocky Mountain National Park10 since Jul 2762/wkgone within ≤61 min (median)
Wawona Yosemite National Park26 since Jul 2444/wkgone within ≤77 min (median)
Seawall Acadia National Park22 since Jul 2431/wkgone within ≤105 min (median)
Watchman Zion National Park19 since Jul 2016/wkgone within ≤122 min (median)
Platte River Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore4 since Jul 2725/wkgone within ≤149 min (median)
Potwisha Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks18 since Jul 2218/wkgone within ≤181 min (median)
South Zion National Park4 since Jul 141.9/wkstill open at last check
Restaurants

The tables that never surface

Same instrument, pointed at restaurant books. These calendars have not shown a single new night since we began watching.

RestaurantWatchedChecksNew nights seen
4 Charles Prime Rib New York15 days≈1,4450
Restaurants

Tables we caught appearing

Nights that appeared on the calendar while we watched, and how quickly they were swept.

RestaurantAppearancesRateTypical lifetime
Via Carota New York27 since Jul 2444/wkgone within ≤26 min (median)
Tatiana by Kwame Onwuachi New York11 since Jul 135.1/wkgone within ≤26 min (median)
Carbone New York21 since Jul 139.8/wkgone within ≤41 min (median)
Sunny's Steakhouse Miami3 since Jul 2718/wkgone within ≤103 min (median)
Bridges New York4 since Jul 2725/wkgone within ≤120 min (median)
Lilia New York18 since Jul 138.4/wkgone within ≤240 min (median)
I Sodi New York4 since Jul 131.9/wkgone within ≤377 min (median)
L'Artusi New York1 since Jul 276.1/wkstill open at last check
Penny New York1 since Jul 276.1/wkstill open at last check
Methodology

How these numbers are made

One shared checker per target polls the venue's own reservation system about every 15 minutes and stores a snapshot. A "opening" is a date that was unavailable on one check and available on the next; its lifetime is bounded by when a later check saw it gone. We can only report what happened between our looks — anything that appeared and vanished inside one interval is invisible to us, so every count here is a floor, not a total. Openings-per-week rates are computed over each target's retained observation window (shown per row). California state-park targets are checked through an on-the-ground relay and have a shorter history than the rest.

Excluded today (checks currently failing, so we can't vouch for their numbers): Bodega Dunes (Sonoma Coast), Carpinteria State Beach, Doheny State Beach, El Capitán State Beach, Julia Pfeiffer Burns, Leo Carrillo, Moro (Crystal Cove), New Brighton State Beach, Pfeiffer Big Sur, Refugio State Beach, San Elijo State Beach, San Onofre Bluffs, South Carlsbad State Beach, Steep Ravine (Mount Tamalpais), Wright's Beach (Sonoma Coast), Anajak Thai, Funke, Pijja Palace, Carbone Miami, Bungalow, COTE Korean Steakhouse, Don Angie, Gage & Tollner, Minetta Tavern, Misi, Peter Luger Steak House, Semma, Torrisi, Zimmi's, Zahav.

Want the next opening at any of these? Each target page has a scout that emails you the moment it happens — campsites · restaurants.