Findings from continuous watching

The hardest reservations in America, measured

"Impossible to book" is usually a vibe. We made it a number. Our scouts have been checking 72 of the most contested reservation targets in the country every 15 minutes — around the clock, for up to 33 days, ≈181,691 checks — recording every time a reserved date flipped open and how long it survived. This page recomputes from the live log on every visit, so it sharpens as the data grows.

Campsites

The shutouts: never open, not once

Every campground below has been fully booked on every single check since we started watching it. No cancellation we could catch, no momentary opening wider than our 15-minute net. This is the measured shape of "you can't get this site."

Campground	Watched	Checks	Openings seen
Dorst Creek Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks	33 days	≈3,252	0
Julia Pfeiffer Burns California State Parks	24 days	≈1,188	0

Campsites

Caught openings — and how fast they died

These campgrounds do open. The catch: the median opening is gone by our very next look. Lifetimes are bounds between our own observations — an opening "gone within ≤15 min" may have lasted seconds.

Campground	Openings	Rate	Typical lifetime
Slough Creek Yellowstone National Park	43 since Aug 10	49/wk	gone within ≤16 min (median)
Upper Pines Yosemite National Park	41 since Aug 16	366/wk	gone within ≤16 min (median)
Indian Cove Joshua Tree National Park	31 since Jul 14	6.5/wk	gone within ≤17 min (median)
Tuolumne Meadows Yosemite National Park	26 since Aug 14	88/wk	gone within ≤17 min (median)
Kalaloch Olympic National Park	32 since Aug 15	234/wk	gone within ≤30 min (median)
Ryan Joshua Tree National Park	31 since Jul 14	6.5/wk	gone within ≤30 min (median)
Many Glacier Glacier National Park	30 since Aug 15	226/wk	gone within ≤30 min (median)
Camp 4 Yosemite National Park	22 since Aug 13	53/wk	gone within ≤30 min (median)
Jumbo Rocks Joshua Tree National Park	33 since Jul 16	7.3/wk	gone within ≤31 min (median)
North Pines Yosemite National Park	29 since Aug 15	171/wk	gone within ≤31 min (median)
Wawona Yosemite National Park	28 since Aug 13	68/wk	gone within ≤31 min (median)
Lower Pines Yosemite National Park	25 since Aug 15	102/wk	gone within ≤31 min (median)
St. Mary Glacier National Park	24 since Aug 12	43/wk	gone within ≤31 min (median)
Apgar Glacier National Park	27 since Aug 15	120/wk	gone within ≤45 min (median)
Jenny Lake Grand Teton National Park	23 since Aug 14	61/wk	gone within ≤45 min (median)
Hoh Rainforest Olympic National Park	35 since Aug 15	153/wk	gone within ≤46 min (median)
Leo Carrillo California State Parks	32 since Aug 12	48/wk	gone within ≤47 min (median)
Cougar Rock Mount Rainier National Park	29 since Aug 15	195/wk	gone within ≤60 min (median)
Crane Flat Yosemite National Park	22 since Aug 13	49/wk	gone within ≤60 min (median)
Platte River Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore	28 since Aug 14	73/wk	gone within ≤61 min (median)
Hodgdon Meadow Yosemite National Park	21 since Aug 13	47/wk	gone within ≤61 min (median)
South Carlsbad State Beach California State Parks	26 since Aug 12	45/wk	gone within ≤62 min (median)
Moro (Crystal Cove) California State Parks	24 since Jul 24	7.1/wk	gone within ≤62 min (median)
Bodega Dunes (Sonoma Coast) California State Parks	22 since Aug 12	34/wk	gone within ≤62 min (median)
Blackwoods Acadia National Park	37 since Aug 15	229/wk	gone within ≤75 min (median)
Moraine Park Rocky Mountain National Park	24 since Aug 13	52/wk	gone within ≤75 min (median)
Seawall Acadia National Park	40 since Aug 15	160/wk	gone within ≤76 min (median)
Lodgepole Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks	27 since Aug 14	86/wk	gone within ≤76 min (median)
Sol Duc Olympic National Park	24 since Aug 14	66/wk	gone within ≤76 min (median)
Mammoth Yellowstone National Park	26 since Aug 14	66/wk	gone within ≤91 min (median)
Kirby Cove Golden Gate National Recreation Area	21 since Aug 8	18/wk	gone within ≤92 min (median)
Potwisha Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks	23 since Aug 10	24/wk	gone within ≤100 min (median)
Assateague Oceanside Assateague Island National Seashore	28 since Aug 13	69/wk	gone within ≤105 min (median)
Signal Mountain Grand Teton National Park	34 since Aug 14	104/wk	gone within ≤106 min (median)
Watchman Zion National Park	22 since Aug 8	20/wk	gone within ≤106 min (median)
Black Rock Joshua Tree National Park	25 since Jul 14	5.2/wk	gone within ≤107 min (median)
Carpinteria State Beach California State Parks	42 since Jul 28	15/wk	gone within ≤108 min (median)
El Capitán State Beach California State Parks	39 since Jul 24	11/wk	gone within ≤108 min (median)
San Elijo State Beach California State Parks	33 since Aug 9	31/wk	gone within ≤108 min (median)
Fish Creek Glacier National Park	26 since Aug 14	67/wk	gone within ≤121 min (median)
Refugio State Beach California State Parks	30 since Aug 9	29/wk	gone within ≤123 min (median)
New Brighton State Beach California State Parks	24 since Aug 10	25/wk	gone within ≤123 min (median)
Doheny State Beach California State Parks	46 since Aug 13	107/wk	gone within ≤139 min (median)
San Onofre Bluffs California State Parks	25 since Aug 12	36/wk	gone within ≤139 min (median)
Pfeiffer Big Sur California State Parks	36 since Aug 10	38/wk	gone within ≤144 min (median)
Schoodic Woods Acadia National Park	22 since Aug 14	70/wk	gone within ≤165 min (median)
Cottonwood Joshua Tree National Park	32 since Aug 5	20/wk	gone within ≤166 min (median)
Wright's Beach (Sonoma Coast) California State Parks	33 since Aug 11	45/wk	gone within ≤200 min (median)
Devils Garden Arches National Park	20 since Aug 10	24/wk	gone within ≤390 min (median)
Steep Ravine (Mount Tamalpais) California State Parks	31 since Aug 9	30/wk	gone within ≤507 min (median)
Fruita Capitol Reef National Park	35 since Jul 28	13/wk	gone within ≤694 min (median)
South Zion National Park	34 since Jul 14	7.1/wk	still open at last check
Desert View Grand Canyon National Park	20 since Jul 14	4.2/wk	still open at last check
Mather Grand Canyon National Park	20 since Jul 14	4.2/wk	still open at last check
North Rim Grand Canyon National Park	20 since Jul 14	4.2/wk	still open at last check
Cades Cove Great Smoky Mountains National Park	20 since Aug 1	8.9/wk	still open at last check

Restaurants

The tables that never surface

Same instrument, pointed at restaurant books. These calendars have not shown a single new night since we began watching.

Restaurant	Watched	Checks
4 Charles Prime Rib New York	33 days	≈3,252
Double Chicken Please New York	19 days	≈1,908
Foxface Natural New York	19 days	≈1,908

Restaurants

Tables we caught appearing

Nights that appeared on the calendar while we watched, and how quickly they were swept.

Restaurant	Appearances	Rate	Typical lifetime
Tatiana by Kwame Onwuachi New York	25 since Jul 28	9.3/wk	gone within ≤21 min (median)
Via Carota New York	30 since Aug 11	40/wk	gone within ≤42 min (median)
Carbone New York	25 since Aug 12	36/wk	gone within ≤50 min (median)
I Sodi New York	23 since Jul 13	4.8/wk	gone within ≤80 min (median)
Torrisi New York	4 since Jul 13	0.8/wk	gone within ≤209 min (median)
Lilia New York	33 since Aug 10	38/wk	gone within ≤311 min (median)
Bridges New York	26 since Jul 27	9.1/wk	gone within ≤456 min (median)
Zahav Philadelphia	40 since Jul 28	15/wk	gone within ≤1021 min (median)
Funke Los Angeles	32 since Jul 13	6.6/wk	gone within ≤3782 min (median)
Zimmi's New York	23 since Jul 27	8.1/wk	gone within ≤13646 min (median)
Penny New York	21 since Jul 27	7.4/wk	gone within ≤19217 min (median)

Methodology

How these numbers are made

One shared checker per target polls the venue's own reservation system about every 15 minutes and stores a snapshot. A "opening" is a date that was unavailable on one check and available on the next; its lifetime is bounded by when a later check saw it gone. We can only report what happened between our looks — anything that appeared and vanished inside one interval is invisible to us, so every count here is a floor, not a total. Openings-per-week rates are computed over each target's retained observation window (shown per row). California state-park targets are checked through an on-the-ground relay and have a shorter history than the rest.

Excluded today (checks currently failing, so we can't vouch for their numbers): Carbone Miami, Sunny's Steakhouse, Bungalow, COTE Korean Steakhouse, L'Artusi, Minetta Tavern, Misi, Peter Luger Steak House.

Want the next opening at any of these? Each target page has a scout that emails you the moment it happens — campsites · restaurants.